The desk's written read on every market narrative — direction, both sides
argued, and an explicit "wrong if" on every note.
Analysis, not signals · Not investment advice
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The desk's written read on each market narrative — direction, both sides argued, and an explicit "wrong if" on every note.
The desk's probabilities on the questions that drive this tape — against the live prediction-market price. Divergence is where the desk disagrees with the crowd. Analysis, not signals; not investment advice.
Long-form research papers — the questions we test in depth, methods shown, negative results included. Not signals; the thinking behind them.
Daily vessel transits through the two straits this desk trades around, each against its own 2023 baseline. The point isn't the shipping — it's whether the tape agrees with the water. Analysis, not signals.
Mention volume across the whole market, last 24h — what's getting talked about, measured not guessed.
Scheduled events that move markets — the day trader's real edge list.